Two weeks ago, the Washington Nationals signaled the start of the MLB trade deadline rush when they sent reliever Hunter Harvey, a former Baltimore Orioles prospect, to the Kansas City Royals for a prospect and a draft pick. That the trades began with such an opening number was fitting: The Orioles and Nationals have rarely, if ever, faced a deadline so pivotal to their trajectories.

The importance of this year’s deadline to the Orioles is obvious, even to those not well-versed in the nuances of their rise to contenders. Their historic wave of prospects is ready, and a group of beloved veterans is blocking them. The veterans cost more, but they are producing enough that letting any of them reach free agency without getting something in return would feel like a waste. The prospects are still developing, but Baltimore’s front office, in search of pitching, needs to decide who is available and who is not.

The uncomfortable sorting has already begun, as evidenced by a deal that sent clubhouse staple Austin Hays to the Philadelphia Phillies for relief help. But as a Friday trade that sent three less-heralded prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays for starter Zach Eflin demonstrated, the Orioles are not necessarily willing to address their needs with a blockbuster just because they can.

The Nationals, meanwhile, are entering another deadline spent trying to shorten their climb back to contention. A core of good young position players is emerging alongside a better-than-expected group of young pitchers. If Nationals ownership is willing to spend this offseason — and that is a massive “if” — you could argue that it is time to hold on to key assets and start bolstering with free agents.

If the Nationals plan to contend next year, it might make sense to keep a relatively inexpensive closer in Kyle Finnegan and a relatively inexpensive 20-20 candidate in outfielder Lane Thomas to help the 2025 push. But without spending from ownership, which remains no guarantee, contending that soon seems less likely. In that case, trading Finnegan and Thomas now, when both retain a year of cheap control, means getting more young talent that might help some day.

Advertisement

Last year, infielder Jeimer Candelario got them promising rookie starter DJ Herz, who has already helped. Finnegan and Thomas have much higher value now than Candelario did then. Late Saturday, the Nationals dealt outfielder Jesse Winker to the New York Mets for Class AA starter Tyler Stuart in a similar deal.

So Baltimore and Washington enter the final hours before the deadline at a crossroads. So far, neither has fully defined its path, though what is happening around them might offer a push. Sunday morning, word broke that Tampa Bay was trading reliever Jason Adam to the San Diego Padres for three prospects, one of whom is Dylan Lesko, San Diego’s first-round choice in the 2022 draft.

Adam is the same age as Finnegan (32), but he has better pure stuff and is under team control for one more year than the Nationals righty. Still, that haul suggests the return for controllable relievers is high enough that it might force Washington’s hand — particularly when contenders such as the New York Yankees and, funnily enough, the Orioles are desperate for late-game help.

Baltimore has made the kind of careful, targeted deals that have defined this trade deadline for other teams, too. So many teams are within reach of the postseason that even stars on losing teams remain untouchable. Winning teams that might have once made big deals to ensure their spot in October can now cling to top prospects and bet on getting there anyway.

Advertisement

For example, the disappointing Toronto Blue Jays said publicly they decided against stripping down their roster in favor of one more run in 2025.

Instead of unloading Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a year before he becomes a free agent to maximize value, they decided to keep him, and remain optimistic they can sign their superstar long term. If they were willing to trade shortstop Bo Bichette, also a free agent after next season, that decision was made for them when Bichette, already in a down year that would have meant selling low on a sometimes-star, suffered a calf injury that will keep him out past the deadline.

Instead, they have kept their stellar rotation intact, unwilling to part with assets such as Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, who are under contract past this season. But they seem likely to shop lefty Yusei Kikuchi, whose performance and relatively low price tag on an expiring deal will make him one of the top starters available. And they have already dealt more expendable pieces, sending catcher Danny Jansen to the surprising Boston Red Sox and reliever Yimi García to the Seattle Mariners.

But caution wanes as the deadline nears, and there are stars to be had if Baltimore — or a more traditionally aggressive team — wants to pounce.

Advertisement

The Chicago White Sox are still shopping Garrett Crochet, despite the flamethrower’s strange indications, as reported in the Athletic, that he wants a contract extension before playing for anyone in the postseason. The Detroit Tigers could keep their increasingly promising young standouts, or they could trade ace Tarik Skubal, one of the few starters in this market who could alter the next few years of a franchise. They would need to receive quite a prospect haul to give up an ace who does not become a free agent until after 2026. Few teams, if any, are as prospect wealthy as the Orioles.

Last year at this time, Baltimore took a cautious approach to the deadline. Instead of pursuing the top starters available, the Orioles made more moderate moves for Jack Flaherty and reliever Shintaro Fujinami. They have already done more this year by acquiring reliever Seranthony Domínguez and outfielder Cristian Pache from the Phillies and bringing in Eflin — and, it must be noted given they have not spent in several years, his $18 million salary for 2025 — from Tampa Bay.

They might not need a headline-grabbing deal to address their lingering needs, which include another starter, potentially another reliever given Craig Kimbrel’s recent struggles and a right-handed bat to help against lefties. An ace such as Skubal or Kikuchi to pair with Corbin Burnes might drastically increase their chances in October. A reliever such as Finnegan or a bat such as Thomas would help them quite a bit, too. This year’s deadline action began with the Nationals trading a former Oriole. The final hours before Tuesday’s 6 p.m. deadline seem likely to have a heavy Baltimore-Washington flavor, too.

ncG1vNJzZmivp6x7uK3SoaCnn6Sku7G70q1lnKedZMCxu9GtqmhqYGeBcHyWaGlyZ56Wwaq7zZqjrGWfp7awuMSsZKakkmLBs63DnmSdnZGZuaq6xGg%3D