Biden seizes on GOP drama with split-screen strategy

July 2024 · 9 minute read

On Tuesday, as President Biden exhorted the world’s leaders at the United Nations to seize this “inflection point in history,” House Republicans were failing to pass a basic procedural motion on defense spending. On Thursday, as Biden welcomed Ukraine’s charismatic wartime president to the White House, GOP lawmakers, engulfed in intraparty turmoil, gave up on passing anything this week and headed home.

White House officials over the past week have ramped up their efforts to highlight such contrasts, sending out daily memos marking the political “split screen” and asserting that the president is advancing American interests while Republicans are failing the basic tests of governance.

Biden’s allies say they have long planned to showcase the president carrying out the duties of his office while highlighting the political struggles of his GOP opponents. But they have leaned into the strategy in the past week as it became clear that far-right Republicans were having outsize sway both in Congress and on the campaign trail, according to White House officials speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy, and as it became more likely the GOP infighting could lead to a government shutdown.

A government shutdown looks more likely. What to know.

The split-screen message — which the Biden team has also used to contrast a purportedly steady White House with a raucous GOP primary season — stands in lieu of more traditional campaigning by the president, who is not yet holding rallies or town halls as he seeks reelection. White House and campaign aides said they believe Biden’s best way to secure votes for next year is to remain above the political fray this year, presenting himself as an effective president rather than a politician.

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“I’ve got a job to do,” Biden said last week at a fundraiser in McLean, Va., in a rare remark on the impeachment inquiry launched recently by House Republicans. “I get up every day — not a joke — not focused on impeachment. I’ve got a job to do. I’ve got to deal with the issues that affect the American people every single solitary day.”

More broadly, given voter concerns about Biden’s vigor at age 80, many in the president’s orbit say they believe the election could come down to Biden’s age versus the GOP’s chaos — and they are eager to play up the latter. (Donald Trump is 77.)

For his part, Biden has largely stayed mum on the most contentious issues dominating Washington, including the looming government shutdown, the budding impeachment probe and the multiple indictments of former president Trump, currently the leading GOP contender to challenge the president in 2024. The tradition of judicial independence also precludes Biden from commenting on Trump’s legal cases.

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That approach comes with benefits and risks, said Democratic strategist Joel Payne, adding that it may appeal to moderate voters but could limit Biden’s ability to rebut attacks from opponents in real-time.

“The split-screen strategy is the main counterprogramming to independent, jump-ball voters,” Payne said, referring to Americans who may have voted for Trump in 2016 but were turned off by the turbulence of his presidency. “It’s not something that is going to bear fruit in the short term. They’re making a long-term bet.”

Historically, many incumbent presidents have campaigned against an oppositional Congress and relied on a “Rose Garden strategy” for reelection, but that approach could have its limits in the current moment, said Russell Riley, a presidential historian at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center.

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“This is conventional political warfare against what will be ultimately an unconventional political opponent,” Riley said, noting that Trump has a history of defying the standard laws of politics. “That’s a necessary but not sufficient condition for victory next fall.”

With many voters focused on the president’s age, Biden’s approach may help him showcase a “basic competence” to voters, Riley said, but a contest against Trump requires a more “creative use of strategy.”

“Politics as usual may not be enough against an unconventional adversary,” he said.

The White House, however, sees House Republicans as a better direct target than Trump for now, in part because of the sensitivities of using official channels to attack a political opponent.

Biden’s strategy of projecting calm leadership could still be undermined by several simmering problems that have the potential to erupt: the autoworkers’ strike, persistent inflation, an increase in illegal immigration.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) surprised many last week when he ordered House committees to open an impeachment inquiry into Biden, a decision aimed at appeasing hard-right lawmakers in his caucus at the same time he was seeking their votes for legislation to fund the government. The impeachment inquiry centers on, among other issues, whether Biden benefited from his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings.

As White House aides, who note that Republicans have not produced evidence of wrongdoing, saw McCarthy struggling to corral his caucus around the impeachment effort and the government funding proposals last week, they zeroed in on a strategy of showing Biden as a steady leader at a time of GOP dysfunction.

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“While President Biden has been in New York this week showcasing America’s global leadership on the world stage, extreme House Republicans are consumed by chaos and marching our country toward a government shutdown that would damage our communities, economy, and national security,” the White House said Wednesday.

But where the White House sees strong leadership, conservatives see profligate spending and pandering to “woke” activists. Republicans also say Biden has been avoiding allegations of corruption within his family and ignoring questions about his involvement in his son Hunter’s businesses.

@POTUS lies directly to the American people about his knowledge & participation in his family’s business schemes,” Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), chairman of the House Oversight Committee, wrote Thursday on X, formerly known as Twitter. “Poll after poll shows Americans see right through these lies.”

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While Biden rarely has addressed the impeachment inquiry or the government shutdown threat in public, he has been sharpening his rhetoric in recent weeks as he seeks to frame next year’s election as a choice rather than a referendum on his presidency. The president plans to deliver a major speech on democracy on Thursday, further contrasting himself with his Republican foes, most of whom will be participating in the GOP presidential primary debate Wednesday.

Officials said Biden will also use future speeches to call out Republicans over their position on various “personal freedoms,” such as their embrace of limits on abortions and restrictions on books. Biden gave a speech last week comparing his economic vision, or “Bidenomics,” with Republican policies he lambasted as “MAGAnomics.”

“Don’t compare me to the Almighty,” Biden often says as he makes his case for a second term. “Compare me to the alternative.”

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Democrats are hoping that sentiment will ultimately be effective, though some retain concerns it may not be enough to motivate certain groups of voters.

Even as Biden has publicly avoided the political battles over his son’s business dealings, his aides have jumped fully into the fray. A consistent theme in their messaging has been that Republicans are embracing the kind of political chaos championed by Trump.

In a statement responding to GOP attacks this week, White House spokesman Ian Sams blasted House Republicans using words such as “extreme,” “circus,” “chaos,” “inability to govern” and “sideshows.”

For their part, Republicans in Congress and on the campaign trail have sought to brand Biden as corrupt and out of his depth. As the attacks on both sides gather steam, it’s not clear how long Biden will be able to operate parallel to the politics of the House GOP caucus.

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If the government shuts down, for example, the president’s allies are aware that voters may eventually turn to the White House to provide a solution, which would probably mean engaging with McCarthy and his lieutenants.

House Republicans have scheduled their first impeachment inquiry hearing for Thursday, and if the process continues to advance, Biden may find it crowding out his administration’s ability to command the stage. In that circumstance, some Democrats fear the White House’s vaunted split screen could seem more like a picture-in-picture presentation, with the president’s agenda garnering a shrinking portion of voters’ attention.

“There is a political risk to not being visible all the time, every single day,” Payne said. “But I think that sticks true to Biden’s brand, and his general political offering to the public of being a president who is around when he needs to be but not so ubiquitous that you can’t get away from him.”

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Biden has also learned that betting on ongoing dysfunction among House Republicans does not always succeed as a political strategy. As the government was nearing a default on the federal debt earlier this year, Biden publicly refused to negotiate with Republicans, taunting McCarthy to pass his own version of a debt limit bill. Some White House aides were surprised when McCarthy was able to navigate the divisions within his caucus to do just that, forcing Biden to the table.

With Trump running evenly with Biden in public polling, some Democrats have called on the president to go beyond drawing a contrast with his opposition. And as Republicans focus on Biden’s age — accusing him of running a “basement” campaign and highlighting stretches of unfilled time on his public schedule — the president faces pressure to calm Democratic anxieties and take on his detractors more directly.

Even as he spends much of his time focused on his official presidential duties, the president and his aides are also setting the stage for a more aggressive campaign effort next year. Biden’s campaign has launched an early $25 million ad campaign that includes television spots showcasing his agenda and the stakes of the election. The latest ad, set to air in Spanish during the GOP debate Wednesday, is titled “La Diferencia” and aims to highlight the differences between Biden’s policies and those backed by Republicans.

Biden has pushed a similar message during a series of political fundraisers in recent days, and he plans to host additional fundraisers during a swing to California and Arizona next week. In lieu of traditional campaign rallies, these donor events have provided a window into how the president is pitching the political split screen to supporters.

“I traveled the world. I just literally came around the world — circumnavigated the world in five days,” Biden said at a fundraiser in New York on Wednesday. “Everywhere I go, even people of very different political philosophies said, ‘You’ve got to win.’ Imagine what happens if we don’t.”

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